Verizon game changer

It is hard to overstate how profoundly Verizon's decision to bring down the walls on its wireless network changes the U.S. competitive and technological communications landscape.

Only a fortnight ago a respected London analyst, Dean Bubley, predicted [1] the number of VoIP Mobile users would grow from virtually zero in 2007 to more than 250 million by the end of 2012. This is well in excess of an expected 100 million users with dual-mode VoWLAN/cellular phones. The push, he said, would come from the operators themselves, who would quickly realize how much more efficient the VoIPo3G system would be for spectrum, for integrating fixed and mobile core networks and for the roll out of new services such as voice mash-ups.

The caveat Bubley put on his prediction was if the big incumbent carriers found it just too hard to change a hundred years of controlling the playing field and resisted any opening of the network to 3rd party devices and applications.

The signs had not been good with Verizon among the chief lobbyists mid year against Google's Washington push to open any new U.S. wireless networks to all players. And Verizon chief, Lowell McAdam, later described the FCC's open access rules for the 700 MHz block as an "experiment." At the same time, fearing years of walking the DC power corridors, Skype had  petitioned the FCC to force carriers to open their mobile networks.

But with a deep pocketed Google on a crusade to open the proprietary world of wireless telephony--and maybe with an eye to history--Verizon surprised the telco world and decided it was time to swim with the tide, announcing earlier this week it would open its network in 2008 

Our sister publication FierceWireless [2] is rightly skeptical how far Verizon will be prepared to go, but it is worth recalling it was the allowing of a simple two way radio (the Carterfone) to connect to the telephone network in 1968 which led to collapse of the then all dominant AT&T, and arguably the deregulation of world telecoms thereafter. At the risk of oversimplifying,  history tells us you can't be half open and once the decision has been made to open the network, then it is almost impossible to hold out. This is especially so in a world of high speed data applications.  And even more so if "open phones" can enjoy a zillion applications - some not useful , some very. 

Which will be food for thought for the (new) AT&T which yesterday was saying it did not intend to go down the Sprint/T-Mobile/Verizon/Google open pathway. Maybe AT&T intend moving to Beijing?

For More:
-  Wall Street Journal has a good summary [3]

Related articles:
- Is open the new closed? Comment [2] 
- Google: Verizon thinks open access won't apply Report [4] 
- iPhone a catalyst in open-access debate Report [5]