The Great Debate: Is mobile VoIP a threat?

Numerous reports have come out about the apparent threat of Mobile VoIP to the rest of the world. Are traditional carriers in trouble? Are minute plans going to go the way of the landline if mobile VoIP succeeds? The conclusion of these reports are partly determined by the popularity of Skype and other VoIP-based mobile apps, but another part of the equation is how carriers are working to bring VoIP technology to their calling plans--probably making these apps that run on data plans unnecessary one day.

First lets look at a TMCNet post [1] which quotes an In-Stat report arguing that mobile VoIP is projected to pull in over $23 billion and having over 278 million users by 2013. Seems like traditional wireless voice people should be afraid as the VoIP offerings will cut into the more pricey 3G call schemes. Another report noted that mobile VoIP calls cost 15 times less than regular 3G calls. Mike Jude of Stratecast claims in the TMCNet article that VoIP providers like Skype are undercutting the voice services that traditional carriers provide and are challenging the revenue streams that justified building out their networks.

So what are those network building carriers doing? They are hoping to one day make all their voice calls over IP as well. The cost savings from which would hopefully trickle down to the consumers and make it less attractive to make calls through third-party VoIP apps. The problem for the carriers is that their networks aren't quite ready to send all that voice over IP. Lynnette Luna, editor of FierceBroadbandWireless and contributor to Urgent Communications, put together an interesting piece [2] that doesn't see wireless VoIP being disruptive anytime soon, if ever--at least not in terms of replacing how current wireless companies place calls on their networks.

While TMCNet's article is more about the Skype's of the world and how their apps might be used to circumvent the wireless carriers costly call plans by just using data, Luna's piece argues that carriers will be slow to implement IP voice solutions of their own. The IMS solution that the wireless industry is using to adapt voice to IP is just not ready for prime time. According to some analysts it might take 10 years for carriers to offer true VoIP services.

In the mean time, carriers will have to figure out ways to curtail outside parties using their bandwidth to circumvent their calling plans. Seems like another ripe place to argue about data usage caps and the net neutrality debate. - Mike [3]