Making sense of good news

Despite the current economic climate, TMC reported a 15 percent jump in attendees at ITEXPO East last week in Miami, and Acme Packet issued a "cautious" estimate of 5 percent growth for 2009. Can we all breath now, or should we continue to hunker down?

As I've said before, ITEXPO is the only/best game in town for an event targeted to the channel partner/VAR space.  Digium has thrown its weight behind the event with its Asterisk World track, and some of the ex-VON crowd swallowed their pride to run a track at the show.

All total, around 8,300 people showed up at ITEXPO, says TMC chief guru Richard Tehrani.  No Spring VON means some marketing people were freed up from having to split the difference between the two shows, and attendees who might have been dyed Purple in the past now had some free time and budget to check out what Miami was like in the spring.

I was in Miami last week and ITEXPO was a decent show. There were admirable numbers of real bodies on the show floor for the opening and first day of the show, and that's the best you can ask for. Ex-VON types were likely disappointed that there was no lavish evening party, but you don't get lavishness at WalMart either - and WalMart is the guy making money these days.

If my dead-VON theory is correct, there should be a modest bump in attendance at VoiceCon in Orlando next month. It will be modest because VoiceCon figured out the enterprise market a lot faster than pulvermedia did and quickly locked in a lot of vendors with a good targeted story, rather than trying to be all things to all people.

Meanwhile, Acme Packet went out on a limb and said it expects 5 percent growth in 2009. Acme is in a unique position with a dominating chunk of the SBC market. It started moving toward wireless and enterprise sales as its traditional VoIP market matured.

Further, carriers can't sit pat on TDM; they HAVE to move to IP. Sprint, Acme's largest customer, bought the most Acme gear last quarter in the history of the two's relationship. Yes, Sprint of thousands of layoffs and massive customer losses, that Sprint. If Sprint has to spend tightly held capex dollars on SBCs gear, you know there's some light in the tunnel for IP telephony in 2009.

- Doug