Will consumer demands drive mobile VoIP?

My answer: Yes and no. Yes, consumers demanding VoIP calls and the associated cost savings have driven app-based VoIP service, but no because until the next-gen wireless networks are in place, mobile carriers who own the networks get to steer the mobile VoIP trolley.

A new report from Ovum called "Mobile operator responses to VoIP: the six steps" exclaims that mobile operators need to start playing nice with VoIP or they will suffer the consequences. Although I think that operators should embrace the technology, and that once the data networks are up to snuff VoIP-style calling will probably be the norm, I am not sure we should get all caught up in the doom and gloom.

The report points to current tactics employed by carriers to keep mobile VoIP use in check as unpopular maneuvers in an exciting growth industry. "Blocking VoIP is like trying to control the tides," said Steven Hartley, principal analyst at Ovum and co-author of the report. "Most mobile operators today have attempted different means of hindering the use of VoIP, or are cautiously monitoring usage. At best, they offer special VoIP tariffs to avoid regulator attention, but these are not viable for end users. However, these approaches merely garner negative publicity from vocal early adopters demanding access.”

Long term use of these tactics will no doubt hurt the image of mobile operators, but I think they are merely stemming the bleeding while they get their next generation WiMAX and LTE networks up and running.

Already this week, Clearwire announced that its WiMAX network would embrace 3rd party VoIP calls with some speculating that this would be just a precursor to the next-gen network launching its own VoIP-based voice service further down the road. Ovum also pointed out in their release the recent deal between Verizon and Skype which shows some carriers are playing nice--although the final offering seems to be less a VoIP play and truly just Skype originated calls being made over Verizon's voice network.

Although Ovum believes that the competitive market will dictate the use of VoIP on the mobile, I'd wager that as long as the mobile operators can control and limit the data usage on their networks, they will be the ones to dictate how many VoIP calls connect. Eventually VoIP will be more free on the mobile phone, but until the next-gen networks are in place, operators are in control of how much spectrum it will get to use.--Mike